The question of who would win if a war broke out between Israel and Iran is not as straightforward as it might seem. On the surface, many might be inclined to think that Israel, with its high-tech weapons and superior air force, holds the advantage. Others might argue that Iran, with its larger population and military size, would have the upper hand. In this article, we’ll break down the various factors involved in a potential conflict between these two nations and assess which country has the edge. But before jumping to conclusions, we need to dive deep into the numbers and military capabilities of both sides and consider the geopolitical and economic factors that could influence the outcome.
Iran has a significant population advantage, being home to almost 92 million people, while Israel’s population stands at a much smaller 9.4 million. This difference is reflected in the number of military personnel each country can mobilize.
Iran boasts a substantial military force, with 610,000 active troops, 350,000 reservists, and 220,000 paramilitary personnel. This brings the total number of military personnel in Iran to 1.18 million. Israel, on the other hand, has 170,000 active-duty personnel, 465,000 reservists, and 35,000 paramilitary troops, totaling 670,000. In terms of sheer numbers, Iran’s military personnel figures are nearly double that of Israel’s.
But can sheer numbers win a war? In modern warfare, numbers often take a back seat to training, equipment, and technology. While Israel is outnumbered, it has mandatory military service, meaning almost all Israeli citizens are trained to fight, adding a qualitative edge to Israel’s military personnel. Iran also has mandatory military service for men, but the population difference means Iran can call on a larger pool of trained fighters. Thus, in terms of raw manpower, Iran appears to have the advantage, but that edge is mitigated by Israel’s higher level of military preparedness across its population.
On the ground, Iran also has the edge when it comes to conventional military equipment. Iran surpasses Israel in tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. When it comes to naval power, the story is similar. Israel’s navy is not a significant factor in its military strategy, with no frigates, no destroyers, no aircraft carriers, and only five submarines. In comparison, Iran has 19 submarines and a more substantial naval presence, albeit one that is still relatively modest on the global stage.
However, despite these numerical advantages, it’s unlikely that ground and naval forces would play a decisive role in a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. The geography of the region makes a direct ground war almost impossible. Israel is situated on the Mediterranean coast, and between the two nations lie Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. Neither country would be able to march through the other’s territory without facing severe logistical challenges and the prospect of being picked off by the other side’s air force. Similarly, Iran is unlikely to launch a successful naval blockade against Israel given the geographical separation and the presence of the United States Navy in the region.
Where Israel truly shines is in its air force. This is where the balance of power begins to shift significantly in Israel’s favor. Israel’s air force is one of the most advanced in the world, with 241 fighter jets compared to Iran’s 186. Israel also has a significant advantage in attack helicopters, boasting 48 compared to Iran’s 13. More importantly, Israel’s aircraft are modern, state-of-the-art machines, including F-15s, F-16s, and the highly advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets. In contrast, Iran’s air force is composed largely of outdated aircraft, many of which date back to the 1960s and 70s. Iran still operates American F-4 and F-5 jets from before the Iranian Revolution of 1979, along with some Russian-made Su-24s. These aging aircraft stand little chance against Israel’s modern fleet.
This aerial superiority gives Israel a significant advantage in a potential conflict. In the event of a full-scale war, Israel would likely leverage its air force to carry out precision strikes on Iranian targets, much as it has done in past conflicts with its neighbors. However, Iran is not entirely defenseless in the air. Over the years, it has developed an asymmetric strategy to counter Israel’s air superiority, relying on missiles and drones to challenge Israeli air dominance.
Iran’s response to Israel’s aerial superiority has been to invest heavily in missile and drone technology. One of Iran’s most notable weapons is the Shahed-136, a kamikaze drone that can be deployed in large numbers to overwhelm enemy defenses. These drones are relatively inexpensive to produce and can be used to swarm targets, presenting a unique challenge to Israel’s advanced, but numerically limited, fighter jets.
In addition to its drones, Iran has developed a range of ballistic missiles, including the Fatih-110 and the Fateh-313, which can reach Israeli territory. Iran’s missile program has also seen the development of indigenous hypersonic missiles, which are designed to evade modern air defenses. This presents a difficult challenge for Israel. While Israel’s air force can likely handle Iran’s aging fighter jets, dealing with a constant barrage of missiles and drones is another story. Israel’s missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, have been highly effective in intercepting short-range rockets from Gaza, but it remains to be seen how well these systems would perform against a sustained missile and drone campaign from Iran.
In any potential war between Israel and Iran, military capabilities are only part of the equation. Economic and geopolitical factors would play a critical role in determining the outcome.
Economically, Israel is one of the wealthiest nations in West Asia, with a GDP that far exceeds Iran’s. Iran, on the other hand, has been suffering under severe international sanctions for years, which has taken a toll on its economy. While Iran has vast oil reserves, its economy is largely dependent on oil exports, and these exports have been severely restricted by sanctions. A full-scale war with Israel would likely see Israel targeting Iran’s critical oil infrastructure, further crippling its economy. Additionally, Israel could strike at Iran’s military-industrial complex, including drone and missile production facilities, further weakening Iran’s warfighting capabilities.
However, perhaps the most decisive factor in any war between Israel and Iran would be the involvement of the United States. Israel enjoys a close military alliance with the U.S., which provides it with billions of dollars in military aid each year. In the event of a conflict, it is almost certain that the U.S. would come to Israel’s aid, providing logistical, intelligence, and military support. Iran, meanwhile, has alliances with Russia and China, but these nations are unlikely to come to Iran’s defense in the same way the U.S. would for Israel. Russia and China might provide diplomatic or economic support, but they are unlikely to intervene militarily, especially given their own global interests and the potential for escalating tensions with the West.
So, who would win if a war broke out between Israel and Iran? The answer is far from clear-cut. In terms of sheer numbers and manpower, Iran has the advantage. Its larger population, bigger army, and more substantial ground and naval forces give it the edge in a traditional, numbers-based war. However, the geography of the region makes a direct ground war unlikely, and neither country would be able to rely on its navy to swing the balance.
The real battle would be fought in the air, and here, Israel holds a decisive advantage. Israel’s advanced air force, bolstered by modern fighter jets and highly trained pilots, would likely dominate the skies over any battlefield. Iran’s reliance on drones and missiles presents a significant challenge, but Israel’s superior air defenses and technological edge would make it difficult for Iran to sustain an effective aerial campaign.
Ultimately, the deciding factor may be the economic and geopolitical realities of the region. Israel’s stronger economy, coupled with its close alliance with the United States, gives it a major advantage over Iran, which has been weakened by years of sanctions and isolation. While Iran could put up a fierce fight, particularly through asymmetric warfare tactics, Israel’s technological and economic advantages, combined with U.S. support, would likely tilt the balance in its favor.
In the end, though, a war between Israel and Iran would be devastating for both nations, and the human and economic toll would be immense. The real question may not be who would win such a war, but whether either side could afford the cost of victory.
