As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, discussions about the accuracy of election polling are once again taking center stage. While nationwide polls receive substantial attention, their relevance is often limited due to the unique structure of the U.S. electoral system. It is essential to focus on the pivotal battleground states, often referred to as “swing states,” which will ultimately decide the outcome. This article delves into the complexities of polling in U.S. elections, examines the accuracy of previous election polls, and discusses what we can expect heading into 2024.
The Electoral College and the Role of Swing States
The U.S. presidential election is not decided by a direct popular vote but through an indirect system known as the Electoral College. Each state is assigned a specific number of electoral votes, which are awarded to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. The system gives smaller states a larger voice relative to their population and makes national election polls potentially misleading. In fact, a candidate can lose the national popular vote and still win the presidency by securing the majority of electoral votes, as was the case in the 2016 election.
Focus on Swing States
Swing states are those where neither major party holds a consistent advantage. These states, often determining the election outcome, include Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the margins of victory in these states were razor-thin, often less than 1%. In the 2024 election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vying for the presidency, these swing states will once again play a decisive role.
Historical Polling Accuracy: Learning from 2016 and 2020
The accuracy of polling in recent U.S. elections has come under intense scrutiny, particularly after the notable errors in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, national polls correctly predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular-vote victory but failed to account for Trump’s narrow wins in key swing states that handed him the Electoral College. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) identified several issues, including the underrepresentation of Republican voters and an overrepresentation of college-educated voters who tend to lean Democratic.
2020 Polling: Continued Challenges
In 2020, despite efforts to address these issues, polling errors persisted. Pollsters underestimated Trump’s vote share in critical swing states, and while Biden won the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton did, the polling industry experienced its least accurate presidential predictions in 40 years. Factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic complicated the polling landscape, leading to substantial errors, especially in states with high Covid-19 case rates.
Public Distrust in Polling
These polling errors have fueled public skepticism, particularly among Republican voters, who are often distrustful of mainstream institutions. This distrust leads to lower participation in polls among certain voter groups, making it harder for pollsters to capture an accurate picture of voter sentiment.
Technical Challenges in Polling
Polling is fraught with technical challenges that can significantly affect accuracy. The rise of call screening and caller ID has made it increasingly difficult to reach potential respondents by phone. Many polling firms now supplement traditional methods with online surveys, email, and robocalls. However, these newer methods introduce their own challenges, such as potential biases in voluntary online survey participation.
Margin of Error and Sample Representation
The margin of error is a critical factor in interpreting polls, yet it is often misunderstood. A typical margin of error for a poll is around 3-4 percentage points, but for smaller demographic groups, it can be even higher. This is particularly important when analyzing results in swing states where the margins of victory are often razor-thin. Moreover, identifying likely voters—those who are most likely to actually vote—remains a significant challenge for pollsters, further complicating efforts to produce accurate forecasts.
Polling Improvements in the 2022 Midterms:
Polling during the 2022 midterm elections showed improvements, with results being the most accurate since 1998. There was no significant bias toward either party, suggesting that some of the changes implemented by polling firms, such as refining sampling techniques and improving question wording, may be having a positive effect. However, it is important to note that midterm elections differ from presidential elections in significant ways, so the dynamics of the 2024 election could present new challenges.
Changes in Polling Methodology
By 2022, over 60% of polling firms had changed their methods, including adjustments to sampling techniques and the wording of questions. While these changes are promising, challenges remain, particularly in predicting voter turnout and dealing with low response rates. As we approach 2024, the accuracy of these polls will again be tested, especially in the crucial swing states.
The Value and Limitations of Polls
Despite their shortcomings, polls remain valuable tools for gauging general trends in public opinion. However, it is essential to interpret poll results with caution, particularly in closely contested elections. Polling aggregators, such as FiveThirtyEight, provide averages that may offer a more reliable snapshot of the electorate than individual polls. Still, these averages are not immune to bias and can only provide general trends.
Polling Alternatives: Betting Markets
As skepticism around traditional polling grows, political betting markets have emerged as an alternative method of forecasting election outcomes. These markets, where participants can bet on election results, have gained popularity and attention. Some argue that betting markets provide better forecasts than traditional polls, although this claim remains unproven. Additionally, there are concerns about potential manipulation of these markets to influence public opinion.
What to Expect in 2024
As we move toward the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the challenges facing pollsters remain significant. While improvements have been made since the errors of 2016 and 2020, the inherent difficulties in predicting voter behavior, especially in swing states, mean that polls should be interpreted with caution. Ultimately, the outcome of the election will depend on the decisions made by voters in a handful of pivotal battlegrounds. For those following the election closely, the best approach is to focus on general trends rather than individual polls and remain aware of the limitations and biases that can affect polling accuracy.
Polls will undoubtedly play a key role in shaping public perception of the race, but they are not definitive predictors of the outcome. In what is expected to be one of the closest elections in recent history, voters and observers alike should be prepared for surprises.
